Tuesday, November 16

Good News (No, Seriously)

Put aside today's market slide for the moment.  (Not as an investment strategy: who really knows the state of earnings quality or the downward-spiral risks of QE2?)


But in a number of important fronts, what a week it's been:
  • McConnell caved on earmarks.  Savings in dollars will pale against gains in Senators' focus, bipartisanship (Obama and Tea Partiers welcomed the move), and the transparency of the system.  Thank you, Sen.-elect Mike Lee!
  • Simpson and Bowles spoke the truth on budget priorities.  Anything that gets the Times Editorial Board to line up (literally: bless the dying print medium) against Paul Krugman warrants attention.  Note the latter's reflexive attack on a presumptively regressive tax structure even before he runs the numbers, even while the FT notes that the proposal "to tax dividends and capital gains as ordinary income...[gives] the tax code (lower marginal rates notwithstanding) a strong progressive twist."
  • Don't like Simpson Bowles?  The NYT gave you a shot at creating your own deficit-reduction plan online.
  • Staff Sergeant Salvatore Giunta became the first living recipient of the Medal of Honor for service in the current conflicts in Iraq or Afghanistan.
  • The Senate took moves to grow less hierarchical, and Dems sharpened their leadership structure (albeit leaving some unhappy).  Both moves could presage more substantive discussions in the media. 
Perhaps most important of all: TLC's (ahem) reality show, "Sarah Palin's Alaska," drew five million in its debut.  (Have I ever had more fun tweeting an event?)  No numbers yet, but the smart money has this easily trouncing Tina Fey's honorifics at the Kennedy Center, which aired on PBS on Sunday.

On economics, I refer to a Bloomberg summary:
American industry churned out more automobiles, computers and appliances in October, keeping manufacturing at the head of the economic recovery that began more than year ago...
Exports and business investment may keep assembly lines busy in coming months, just as the initial spark from the need to rebuild inventories wanes. Increases in global demand that are benefiting companies like General Electric Co. gave American consumers time to repair finances and resume spending, leading to a more balanced recovery.
We've got years of monster deleveraging ahead yet.  We've got an entire housing finance system in need of total overhaul from borrower application to securitization to (in the wake of robo-signing) title insurance.  None of this will be fun.  And let's not forget that earnings quality I muttered about at the outset.  (It's the new "book value" for 2011.)

But for the first time in years, it feels as though the pendulum is swinging in a better direction -- with a bit more potential for unexpected consensus* -- and just a bit more in the open.  

*not actually unexpected if you knew who to ask and read the last paragraph.  Watch this space.

3 comments:

Terry Mahoney said...

Your glass-is-half-full analysis is VERY refreshing. Of particular note, the consensus on earmarks!

It will be exciting to see if that plays out now that the President is behind it.

A small correction, only because I'm a Marine and I am a stickler for this, but it is the "Medal of Honor" not the "Congressional Medal of Honor."

Also, he is not the fist living recipient of a MOH, just the first from the Afghan/Iraq wars. Probably a typo, but you may want to correct.

It is wonderful that this was awarded. Outside of the outlier recipients for a theater-level MOH (MacArthur for example) these people are undisputably heroic, and usually as humble as SSG Giunta has shown himself to be.

Jonathan said...

Thank you for your service, and for your thoughtful comment. I've made the corrections you indicate.

I had dinner with a dear friend and former Marine last night. Since leaving the USMC several years ago, he has been a firefighter in Long Beach, Calif. Somehow he and his wife have stayed strong through the long deployments abroad and the weird hours stateside. But for some the instinct for service is permanent.

Now if only I could get him to run for public office. What would it take for you, Terry?!

Terry Mahoney said...

First I'd have to clear some skeletons out of my closet!

Then I'd have to be a viable candidate as an independent, as I gave up all political parties for Lent in 2004.

Outside of that, I'M READY!